Nashly Nails stopped running out of its best sellers

The stockout that costs the most is the one on your best seller

Nashly Nails is a gel polish retailer that had trouble forecasting demand — and its most popular products kept selling out, hurting sales. That's a familiar shape for a stockout problem: on any product catalog, a handful of items carry a disproportionate share of sales, and running out of one of those costs far more than running out of something further down the catalog. A slow mover sitting empty barely dents the numbers. A best seller sitting empty is the stockout every retailer feels immediately, because it's lost revenue on the very item the business depends on most, not on the long tail around it.

Why best sellers are the hardest to keep in stock

A flat reorder point — restock when inventory drops below some fixed number — is set against average demand. But a fast mover doesn't sell at the average; it sells at multiples of it, so a buffer that would cover a slow item for months gets drained on a hot one in days. Manual reordering that averages sales across the whole catalog smooths that outlier away — the exact number that should have raised a flag disappears into the average instead. A forecast has to work at the level of the individual product, not the catalog average, or it will keep missing the items that need it most.

Forecasting demand instead of reacting to it

Assisty replaces the flat reorder point with an actual forecast: predicted sales for each product — and each variant — over whatever horizon is chosen, with items that will run out before the period ends flagged directly, alongside anything sitting on too much stock. Ask "what if sales trend up?" and the forecast recomputes on the spot, instead of requiring a new spreadsheet for every scenario. The forecast can also explain itself — asking why a product is trending a certain way returns the actual drivers behind the number, rather than just the number on its own. And a forecast doesn't get poisoned by its own history: days a product was out of stock can be excluded from the calculation, so a past stockout isn't misread as fading demand and doesn't quietly suppress the very reorder that would prevent the next one.

From a forecast to a purchase order

A flagged stockout risk carries straight into the Smart Buying Table, where it becomes a suggested order quantity computed from sales velocity, lead time, and any stock already incoming — then rounded to case sizes and capped at maximum stock levels, so the number on screen is one that could be ordered as-is. Findings are ranked by the money at stake, so the costliest problems surface first instead of getting lost in a long list. The plan can be reshaped by talking to it, too: telling Atlas that an item is selling faster than usual, or naming a budget to spend, and the whole table recomputes — with a was→now chip and a per-row undo on every change, so nothing is final until an order is actually created. From there, the rows that need action can be turned straight into purchase orders — split automatically by supplier — rather than rebuilt by hand in a separate spreadsheet.

"My sales have increased"

Put a forecast that watches each product on its own and a buying plan that turns a flagged risk straight into an orderable quantity together, and any retailer's best sellers stop being the ones most likely to run out. For Nashly Nails, the result was reliable availability on the products that matter most, and noticeable sales growth from no longer losing those sales to a stockout.

My sales have increased by keeping my most important products in stock. 100% if you need inventory management, then Assisty is for you!